The Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in Axisymmetric Numerical Model Simulations

Revisiting the maximum intensity of recurving tropical cyclones

Previous studies have indicated that recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones, initially westward moving tropical cyclones that turn toward the east, often reach their maximum intensity close to the time of recurvature. Those results have often been cited in the literature and sometimes inferred to be valid in other tropical cyclone basins. This study revisits this topic in the western...

Changes in Number and Intensity of World-wide Tropical Cyclones

Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is small probability that the number of cyclones has increased in the past thirty years. The rate at which these storms become hurricanes appears to be constant. T...

Augmentation of Early Intensity Forecasting in Tropical Cyclones

In this project, we develop an objective and automatic intensity estimator of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) based on satellite infrared (IR) imagery. The proposed methodology analyzes the TC’s shape or pattern to perform the intensity estimates, which will be available every 30 minutes (or depending on image acquisition availability) for the Atlantic, Eastern North Pacific and Western North Pacific b...

Numerical simulations of rotating axisymmetric sunspots

A numerical model of axisymmetric convection in the presence of a vertical magnetic flux bundle and rotation about the axis is presented. The model contains a compressible plasma described by the nonlinear MHD equations, with density and temperature gradients simulating the upper layer of the sun’s convection zone. The solutions exhibit a central magnetic flux tube in a cylindrical numerical do...

Initialization of Tropical Cyclones in Numerical Prediction Systems